In its long-term projections released this morning, USDA’s Economic Research Service forecast farm income at a record $127.6 billion, up 15% as crop insurance payments add to income record commodity payments. They then see a drop to $96.9 billion in 2014 as corn, wheat and soybean prices fall dramatically and high production costs, up 12% in two years, eat into income.
At the same time, U.S. ag exports, valued at a record $145 in the current fiscal year, ending Sept. 30, are expected to drop by $3 billion next year and another $5 billion in fiscal 2015.
USDA’s crop projections, formulated in November, see the acreage planted to wheat, rice, corn, sorghum, barley, oats, soybeans and Upland cotton at 254 million, second only to the record set in 2012.
USDA projects a record corn crop of 14.4 billion bushels this year – a 34% increase over last year .
However, the 163.6-bu./acre yield it uses is high by most estimations, including ours, at least with drought still affecting the western Corn Belt and recent disappointing yields. The long-range study also forecasts a soybean crop of 3.34 billion bushels, the second largest on record.
Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.