The grain trade anticipates USDA may make small cuts in its estimates of 2009 corn and soybean production in the monthly Crop Production Report scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
Trade estimates of U.S. corn production average 13.081 billion bushels in a range from 12.838 billion to 13.200 billion bushels compared with USDA’s current estimate of 13.151 billion bushels and last year’s 12.101-billion-bushel crop, according to a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires.
Estimates of soybean production average 3.350 billion bushels in a range from 3.210 billion to 3.375 billion bushels compared with USDA’s current estimate of 3.361 billion bushels and last year’s 2.967-billion-bushel crop.
It is uncertain whether USDA will in fact revise corn and soybean production in Wednesday’s report.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced on Jan. 12 that it “may” revise production, yield, acreage and stocks data for corn and soybeans based on a resurvey of some producers who still had crops in the field when the last production survey was conducted in late November/early December.
USDA said it was resurveying corn producers in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Soybean producers were resurveyed in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia.
Expectations for reduced corn production are largely based on low test weights and field losses on the 4-5% of the U.S. corn crop that could not be harvested before harsh winter weather hit the Corn Belt in late December.
Whether or not Wednesday’s report shows revisions in corn production, the 2009 crop picture will still not be complete.
NASS will be updating corn production estimates for Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin next week – if necessary – but the resurvey of North and South Dakota, producers will be done at a later date because of persistent bad conditions there.
Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.