U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected higher this month as an increase in ending year corn stocks more than offset reductions for sorghum, barley and oats. Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half (September-February) of the marketing year. The reduction in corn feed and residual use is partly offset by a combined 20-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use for the other feed grains based on the March 1 stocks. Adding to 2012-2013 feed grain supplies this month are increases of 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, in projected barley and sorghum imports.
Domestic corn use for 2012-2013 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance. Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year (March-August). Corn exports for 2012-2013 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012-2013 are raised 125 million bushels.
The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are lowered 20¢ at their midpoints to $6.65-7.15/bu. and $6.60-7.10/bu., respectively.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher with a 1.1-million-ton increase in world coarse grain production. Higher world corn production is partly offset by reductions in China sorghum and Algeria barley output. Corn production is raised 1.5 million tons for Brazil as continued favorable growing season weather boosts prospects for production to a record 74.0 million tons. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with upward revisions to production in Spain, Hungary, and Poland. Corn production is also increased 0.2 million tons for Russia on the final government estimate. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in corn output for South Africa, Vietnam, and Serbia. South Africa production is lowered 0.5 million tons as more heat and dryness in March further trim yield prospects in the western and west central parts of the growing belt.
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Global coarse grain trade for 2012-2013 is raised slightly as a small reduction in world corn exports are more than offset by increases for EU-27 barley and India sorghum. Corn exports are lowered 0.6 million tons for the United States and 0.5 million tons for South Africa, but exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and Ukraine. Global corn feed and residual use is down 5.3 million tons with much of the decline reflecting the reduction in the United States. Feed and residual use is also lowered for China, Egypt, Mexico, and Serbia. A 1.5- million-ton increase in EU-27 corn feed and residual use is partly offsetting. Global corn stocks are raised 7.8 million tons with 3.2-million-ton increases for both the United States and China, and a 0.9-million-ton increase for Brazil.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2012-2013 is increased 20 million bushels this month to 1.635 billion. The increase reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year. Increased U.S. soybean meal exports partly offset reduced meal exports for Brazil and Argentina as crush in those countries declines more quickly than expected on reduced supplies resulting from last year’s drought. Soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, food use, and ending stocks. Increased food use partly offsets reduced imports and consumption of canola oil.
The season-average price range for soybeans is projected at $13.80-14.80/bu., unchanged from last month. Soybean oil prices are projected at 48-50¢/lb., down 1¢ at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $415-435/short ton, down $10 at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month. South American soybean production accounts for most of the change. Paraguay soybean production is forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 0.6 million as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area. Projected yields resulting from favorable rainfall and relatively mild temperatures are the highest for Paraguay in the past 10 years. Uruguay soybean production is also raised this month on higher area and yield. Uruguay benefitted from the same favorable weather pattern seen in Paraguay and southern Brazil.
Global oilseed trade for 2012-2013 is projected at 114.4 million tons, down 1.4 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower soybean exports projected for Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are only partly offset by increases for Uruguay and the United States. Lower exports in Paraguay reflect higher crush as new capacity becomes operational. Soybean imports are reduced 2 million tons to 61 million for China reflecting lower-than-expected imports for the first half of the marketing year. Higher soybean imports are projected for several countries including Egypt, EU-27, Mexico and Vietnam. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.
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