Over the past two decades, how often have November soybean futures had a lower price on October 1 than on the previous May 1?
a. 10 years
b. 12 years
c. 14 years
d. 16 years
Answer (c): From 1990 through 2009, November soybean futures traded lower at harvest vs. spring in 14 years, or 70% of the time. The average decline was roughly 30 cents per bushel. In my opinion, this is the second strongest seasonal trend you can find in commodities, second only to the tendency for December corn futures to decline from spring to harvest.