Corn production is forecast at 12.3 billion bushels, down 1% from the October forecast and down 1% from 2010. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production total on record for the U.S. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields are expected to average 146.7 bu./acre, down 1.4 bu. from the October forecast and down 6.1 bu. from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2003. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.9 million acres, unchanged from the October forecast.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.05 billion bushels, down slightly from the October forecast and down 9% from last year. Based on Nov. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.3 bu./acre, down 0.2 bu. from last month and down 2.2 bu. from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, unchanged from October but down 4% from 2010.
Corn production for 2011-2012 is forecast 123 million bushels lower with the national average yield forecast 1.4 bu. acre below last month. At 146.7 bu., this year’s yield would be the lowest since 2003-2004. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels with the smaller crop and further reductions in the outlook for broiler production. Projected U.S. ending stocks are lowered 23 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.20-7.20/bu.
Changes for 2010-2011 corn mostly reflect a 13-million-bushel increase in food, seed and industrial use with usage raised for sweeteners, starch and ethanol, all based on the latest available data. In addition, there are small adjustments to imports and exports based on August trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau. These changes reduce 2010-2011 feed and residual use 11 million bushels.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-2012 are projected slightly lower with reduced U.S. corn production and lower EU-27 rye production more than offsetting higher Argentina sorghum production, higher EU-27 corn, barley, oats production and higher Kazakhstan barley production. Corn production is lowered for a number of countries with the biggest reduction for Mexico where production is lowered 3.5 million tons. A late start to the summer rainy season and an early September freeze in parts of the southern plateau Corn Belt reduced yields for Mexico’s summer crop. Lower expected area for the winter crop, which will be planted in November and December, also reduces 2011-2012 corn production prospects. Reservoir levels are well below those necessary to sustain a normal seasonal draw down in the northwestern corn areas, which normally account for 70-80% of Mexico’s winter corn crop.
Increases in 2011-2012 corn production for a number of countries partly offset reductions in Mexico, the U.S. and Serbia. Corn production is raised 2.5 million tons for China with increases in both area and yields in line with the latest indications from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.9 million tons mostly reflecting higher reported output in France, Romania and Austria. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons with higher expected area. FSU-12 production is raised 0.7 million tons with higher reported yields in Belarus and Russia. There are also a number of production changes this month to corn and sorghum production in Sub-Saharan Africa, which reduce coarse grain production for the region.
World coarse grain trade for 2011-2012 is raised with increased global imports and exports of barley and corn. Barley imports are raised for Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan with exports increased for EU-27 and Russia. Corn imports are increased for China, Mexico, and South Korea. Higher expected corn exports from Argentina and EU-27 support these increases. Higher sorghum exports from Argentina offset the reduction in expected U.S. sorghum shipments. Global corn consumption is mostly unchanged with higher industrial use and feeding in China and higher corn feeding in EU-27 and South Korea offsetting reductions in Mexico and the U.S. Global corn ending stocks are projected 1.6 million tons lower with reductions in EU-27, Mexico, Brazil and the U.S. outweighing increases for China and Argentina.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.046 billion bushels, down 14 million from last month. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bu./acre, down 0.2 bu. from last month. Soybean exports are reduced 50 million bushels to 1.325 billion mainly due to a slow export sales pace through October.
Soybean ending stocks are projected at 195 million bushels, up 35 million from last month. Soybean oil ending stocks and exports for 2011-2012 are reduced this month due to lower beginning stocks resulting from changes in the 2010-2011 soybean oil balance sheet. Changes for 2010-2011 include reduced soybean oil production and ending stocks. These changes are based on industry indications of soybean crush and soybean oil stocks. Soybean meal production and domestic use for 2010-2011 are also reduced due to lower October-September year crush. Soybean meal changes for 2011-2012 include reduced domestic use and higher exports.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.60-13.60/bu., down 55¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $310-340/short ton, down $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53-57¢/lb., unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month. Global soybean production accounts for a quarter of the increase with larger crops projected for Brazil, Paraguay and Mexico. Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million with improved yield prospects related to rapid planting progress and good early season moisture throughout the country. These gains are partly offset by lower production projected for Argentina, which is reduced 1 million tons to 52 million due to reduced area as producers shift to corn.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 113.3 million tons, down 0.8 million. Reduced soybean exports for the U.S. and Argentina are only partly offset by increases for Brazil and Paraguay. Soybean imports are reduced for Japan and Russia. Global oilseed crush is reduced 0.2 million tons to 389.1 million with reduced soybean crush in Argentina partly offset by increased sunflowerseed crush in Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2011-2012 are raised 0.9 million tons to 73.9 million. Soybeans account for most of the change with increased stocks for the U.S. and China more than offsetting lower stocks in Argentina and Japan.