U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012-2013 are virtually unchanged as adjustments to 2011-2012 balance sheets are largely offsetting and projected 2012-2013 production and use are unchanged on the month. Projected 2012-2013 season average price ranges for corn, sorghum, barley and oats are all unchanged.
Adjustments to corn usage for 2011-2012 reflect the latest ethanol production and trade data. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2011-2012 is projected 50 million bushels higher. Weekly ethanol production has increased since mid-April after gradually declining from the record levels of late December. The higher corn use projection assumes slightly lower ethanol production during the June-August quarter as compared with the same period last year.
Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels lower as shipments and sales continue to fall off of the pace needed to reach last month’s projection. Tight domestic supplies and increased competition – especially from Brazil – are also expected to reduce U.S. export prospects during the summer months. Projected corn ending stocks for 2011-2012 are unchanged, as is the 2011-2012 season average farm price which remains at $5.95-6.25/bu.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-2013 are projected 4.8 million tons higher with increases in corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are increased 1.6 million tons mostly reflecting higher 2011-2012 production for Brazil and China. Brazil corn production is raised 2 million bushels for 2011-2012. Despite lower reported area for the main season crop, the rapid expansion in area and nearly ideal weather for the second season (safrinha) crop is boosting Brazil’s corn production prospects to a record 69 million tons. China’s 2011-2012 corn production is raised 1.0 million tons in line with recent revisions to official government estimates.
World corn production for 2012-2013 is increased 4.2 million tons this month with increases in China, EU-27 and FSU-12. China production for 2012-2013 is raised 2.0 million tons based on higher reported corn area as land planted to soybeans declines. EU-27 corn production is increased 1.1 million tons mostly on higher area and yields for Hungary. Production is up 0.8 million tons for Russia and 0.3 million tons for Belarus both on higher reported area.
Global 2012-2013 coarse grain trade is projected higher this month on increased imports and exports of corn. Corn imports are raised for EU-27 and Indonesia. Corn exports are increased for Russia and Belarus, both reflecting higher expected production and supplies. Higher imports and production support increased corn feeding in EU-27. Higher beginning stocks and production in China boost prospects for feeding, but a partly offsetting reduction in industrial use limits the increase in corn consumption. Russia corn feeding is lowered 0.3 million tons reflecting slower expected year-to-year growth in feed grain consumption with rising feeding efficiencies in pork and poultry production. Global corn consumption is increased 2.4 million tons. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.4 million tons higher. Of the increase, 2.0 million tons are for China and 1.0 million tons are for Brazil.
This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012-2013 include lower beginning and ending stocks and reduced use. Lower beginning stocks reflect increased export and crush projections for 2011-2012. Soybean exports for 2011-2012 are raised 20 million bushels to 1.335 billion bushels reflecting increased global import demand, led mainly by higher projected imports for China. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels mostly due to stronger domestic soybean meal use.
Soybean ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 35 million. With reduced supplies for 2012-2013, soybean exports are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million. Soybean crush is also projected lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use. Ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.
Soybean, meal and oil price projections for 2012-2013 are unchanged this month. The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $12-14/bu. Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $335-365/ton and 52.5-56.5¢/lb., respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 470.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. China’s soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons due to lower area as producers shift planting decisions toward corn. Brazil’s cottonseed production is also reduced due to lower area planted to cotton as world prices have declined in recent weeks. Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for EU-27, increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased sunflower seed production for EU-27, and reduced cottonseed production for Australia and Egypt. Brazil’s 2011-2012 soybean production is increased 0.5 million tons to 65.5 million while Argentina soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 41.5 million.