Today’s WASDE report shows little to no significant change in corn and soybeans, from supplies to production to prices. Global corn supplies are down a bit, production is down 0.5 million tons and imports are raised. Corn prices are projected at $5.15-5.65/bu. Soybean production is up a bit from last month. Ending stocks are down, and could be at their lowest in six years. Soybean prices are down 10¢ on each end, with projections at $11.10-12.10/bu.
The U.S. feed grain balance sheet for 2010-2011 is nearly unchanged this month. Projections for corn, sorghum and oats supplies, usage, and ending stocks are all unchanged. The projected marketing-year average farm price for corn is narrowed 10¢ on both ends of the range to $5.15-5.65/bu.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2010-2011 are projected 2.5 million tons lower this month with lower corn beginning stocks and reduced corn, barley, sorghum and oats production. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons with upward revisions to Brazil exports and India feeding in 2009-2010.
Global 2010-2011 corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as lower production in Mexico and India is partially offset by higher production in Brazil. Brazil corn production for 2010-2011 is raised 2.0 million tons reflecting higher reported area and yields in the summer crop and expectations for increased area for the winter crop with government planting dates extended for crop insurance and loan programs. Mexico corn production is reduced 2.0 million tons as the unusual early February freeze destroyed standing corn crops across much of the northwest winter corn region, which normally accounts for about one-fourth of the country’s total corn production. Replanting is expected to offset some of the loss, but seasonally high temperatures in the coming months limit the growing season window.
Global 2010-2011 coarse grain imports are raised this month as increases for corn and sorghum more than offset a reduction for barley. Corn imports are raised 1.1 million tons for Mexico with the lower production outlook. Corn imports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU-27 on stronger expected feeding. A 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia corn imports is partly offsetting. Increased corn feeding in EU-27 is more than offset by reductions in feeding in Russia and lower food, seed and industrial use in India and Mexico. Projected global corn ending stocks are raised slightly.
U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2010-2011 are mostly unchanged from last month. A higher soybean meal extraction rate is offset by a small increase in soybean meal exports, leaving the projected soybean crush unchanged. Soybean oil production is increased due to a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biodiesel for 2010-2011 is projected at 2.7 billion pounds, down 200 million from last month due to lower-than-expected production through January. Soybean oil exports are increased 200 million pounds to 3.0 billion reflecting continued strong export shipments and sales. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.4 billion pounds, down 165 million from last month. If realized, soybean oil ending stocks would be the lowest in six years.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010-2011 is projected at $11.10-12.10/bu., down 10¢ on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 51.5-55.5¢/lb., up 0.5¢ on both ends. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $340-370/short ton, down $10 on the high end.
Global oilseed production for 2010-2011 is projected at 444.2 million tons, up 2.4 million tons from last month. Foreign production, projected at 343.7 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is forecast at a record 70.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons from last month due to higher projected yields. Soybean production is also raised for China.
Global oilseed supplies, crush and ending stocks are projected higher this month. Soybean crush is projected higher for Brazil and India, and sunflowerseed crush is raised for China and EU-27. Higher soybean stocks for Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset by reductions for China, Canada and India. Higher rapeseed stocks are projected for EU-27, Australia, and Turkey. Global protein meal production, consumption, and stocks are all projected higher this month.