Projected 2012-2013 U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged this month as an increase in imports and lower exports support higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of shipments reported through January. Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed quality wheat.
Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bushels with continued expansion in poultry production and a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum feed and residual use.
The projected season-average farm prices for corn is lowered 20¢ on the high end of the range to $6.75-7.45/bu.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-2013 are projected 1.0 million tons lower with a 0.8-million-ton decrease in production. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Argentina reflecting extended dryness in February that reduced yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn. South Africa corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as dryness and heat reduce yield prospects in the western areas of the maize belt. India corn production is raised 0.4 million tons as planting progress reports for the winter crop indicate a year-to-year increase in area.
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Global coarse grain exports for 2012-2013 are lowered this month mostly reflecting the projected reduction in U.S. corn exports. World corn feed and residual use is raised with higher expected use in the United States. Corn feed use is also raised for India and Malaysia. Corn imports and feeding are lowered for South Korea with higher expected imports of feed quality wheat and increased wheat feeding. Global coarse grain ending stocks decline 0.6 million tons with small reductions in corn stocks for Brazil, Malaysia, Argentina and India.
U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012-2013 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 125 million bushels. Although soybean export commitments through February exceeded last year’s pace, U.S. exports are expected to decline in the months ahead as increased competition from a record South American soybean crop limits additional U.S. sales during the second half of the marketing year.
Soybean crush is also ahead of last year’s pace, but is projected to slow in the second half of the marketing year on declining soybean meal exports as competition from South America, especially Argentina, increases with the new-crop harvest.
The projected season-average price range for soybeans is narrowed 25¢ on both ends of the range to $13.80-14.80/bu. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 48.5-51.5¢lb., down 1¢ at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $425-445/short ton, down $10 at the midpoint.
Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 466.8 million tons, down slightly from last month as reduced soybean and sunflowerseed production is mostly offset by increased rapeseed and cottonseed production. Foreign production, projected at 374.1 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Argentina soybean production is projected at 51.5 million tons, down 1.5 million. Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects.
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