Today’s WASDE report shows ending stocks for U.S. corn and soybeans unchanged. Prices were changed slightly, with corn projected at $5.20-5.60. Soybean prices were changed to $11.25-11.75.
Corn
U.S. cornending stocks are unchanged this month as a projected increase in corn use for ethanolis offset by a reduction in expected feed and residual use. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels as strong blender incentives and positive ethanol producer margins continue to encourage expansion in ethanol production and use. Rising gasoline prices have pulled ethanol prices higher helping to offset increases in corn feedstock costs for ethanol producers.
U.S. corn feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels as increased prospects for 2011 SRW wheat production and higher year-to-year corn plantings in the South reduce expected corn feed and residual disappearance during the second half of the 2010-2011 corn marketing year. Prospects for early new-crop corn usage ahead of Sept. 1 are also increased with the largest intended southern corn plantings since 2007 and high expected summer corn prices.
Price ranges for all the feed grains are narrowed 5¢/bu. on each end. The season-average corn price is projected at $5.20-5.60/bu.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2010-2011 are projected 6.3 million tons higher this month with a 1.8-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 4.5-million-ton increase in production. Higher corn and barley beginning stocks in Iran account for most of the increase in carry in. Nearly half of the increase in coarse grain production reflects upward revisions to sorghum production in a number of Sub-Saharan African countries. Increases in millet production for countries in this same region add 1.4 million tons to global coarse grain output.
Global corn production is raised 1.2 million tons with the biggest increases for Brazil, Uganda and Paraguay. Production for Brazil is raised 2 million tons with higher reported area and yields for their primary summer crop and an increase in reported plantings for their winter crop. A 0.5-million-ton increase for Uganda corn is part of a number of revisions for African countries this month. Production for Paraguay is raised 0.4 million tons as favorable growing season weather boosted yields. Production is lowered 1.3 million tons for Indonesia and 0.5 million tons each for Egypt and South Africa.
Global 2010-2011 corn trade is up slightly this month with imports raised 0.9 million tons for Indonesia and 0.5 million tons for China. The increase in expected China imports reflects the short-term decline in world corn prices in mid-March that created a buying opportunity for Chinese importers. No official confirmation of such purchases has yet been made. Corn imports are lowered 0.4 million tons for Canada based on the slow pace of U.S. shipments to date. Corn exports are raised 1.5 million tons for Brazil and 0.3 million tons for Paraguay with increased production and supplies in both countries. Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons each for South Africa and Thailand. Global corn consumption is increased 3.1 million tons with increases in feeding for China, Brazil and Thailand, and increased food, seed and industrial use for China and for several African countries where corn is a food staple. Projected global corn ending stocks are lowered 0.7 million tons.
Soybeans
U.S. soybeanexports for 2010-2011 are projected down 10 million bushels from last month. The slower-than-expected shipment pace through March combined with increased export competition resulting from larger crops for Brazil and Paraguay leave U.S. exports projected at 1.58 billion bushels. Although there are no changes in the U.S. soybean meal supply and demand projections, the soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.65 billion due to an increase in the meal extraction rate. Seed use is reduced to reflect plantings for 2011 reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is raised based on indications from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks remain unchanged at 140 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $11.25-11.75/bu., up 15¢ on the bottom and down 35¢ on the top of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $340-360/short ton, down $10 on the top of the range. The soybean oil price is projected at 53-55¢/lb., up 1.5¢ on the bottom and down 0.5¢ on the top of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010-2011 is projected at 447 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from last month. Higher soybean, sunflowerseed and rapeseed production more than offsets lower cottonseed production. Global soybean production is increased 2.6 million tons to 261 million. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 72.0 million tons, up 2 million from last month as ample moisture and favorable late-season weather in the southern states improved yield prospects. Soybean production for Paraguay is projected at 8.1 million tons, up 0.6 million, also based on higher yields.
Global oilseed supplies and ending stocks for 2010-2011 are projected higher this month while crush is reduced. Lower soybean crush, led by Argentina and China, is only partly offset by increased rapeseed crush, with the largest gains in Mexico, Pakistan and United Arab Emirates. Global oilseed stocks are raised 2.5 million tons, with the largest gains for soybeans in Brazil and Argentina.
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