U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011-2012 are projected lower this month with sharp drops in forecast corn and sorghum production. Corn productionfor 2011-2012 is forecast 556 million bushels lower with a reduction in harvested area and lower expected yields. The national average yield is forecast at 153 bu./acre, down 5.7 bu. from last month’s projection as unusually high temperatures and below-average precipitation during July across much of the Corn Belt sharply reduced yield prospects.
Total projected corn use for 2011-2012 is reduced 340 million bushels. Feed and residual use is projected 150 million bushels lower reflecting the smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is projected 50 million bushels lower with tighter supplies and lower forecast gasoline consumption for 2011 and 2012. Projected corn exports for 2011-2012 are reduced 150 million bushels with wheat feeding expected to increase. Ending stocks are projected 156 million bushels lower at 714 million. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 5.4%, compared with last month’s projection of 6.4%. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.20-7.20/bu., up 70¢ on each end of the range.
Small changes are made to 2009/10 feed grain supplies and usage reflecting the latest revisions to trade estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census and revisions for 2010 calendar year ethanol production from the Energy Information Administration. Estimated feed and residual use for 2009-2010 is adjusted based on these revisions.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-2012 are projected lower with a 3.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks more than offset by a 14.0-million-ton reduction in output. The decline in global production is driven by reduced corn and sorghum production in the U.S. with foreign corn, barley and oat production all expected higher. Corn production is raised for Brazil, Ukraine and EU-27, but lowered for Egypt
Global coarse grain exports for 2011-2012 are lowered slightly as reduced U.S. corn and sorghum exports are mostly offset by higher expected foreign corn and barley shipments. Corn exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Ukraine, 0.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Canada making up more than half of the reduction in U.S. exports.
Global coarse grain consumption is projected down 8.4 million tons with most of this resulting from lower world corn feed and residual use. More than half of the reduction is from lower corn and sorghum feed and residual use in the U.S. Corn feeding in lowered for EU-27, Canada and South Korea as rising supplies of competitively priced feed quality wheat displace corn usage. World corn ending stocks are projected down 1.1 million tons with increases for Brazil and EU-27 mostly offsetting the U.S. reduction.
U.S. oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 91.7 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month. Soybean, canola and sunflowerseed production are all projected lower. Soybean supplies for 2011-2012 are reduced as lower forecast production is only partly offset by higher beginning stocks.
Soybean production for 2011-2012 is projected at 3.056 billion bushels, down 169 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is projected at 73.8 million acres, down 0.5 million (using rounded data) mainly reflecting reductions for South Dakota. The first survey-based yield forecast of 41.4 bu./acre is 2 bu. below last month’s trend yield projection and 2.1 bu. below last year’s yield. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, down 20 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced exports and crush. Soybean exports are reduced 95 million bushels to 1.4 billion mainly due to the lower crop and increased projected supplies in South America this fall. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on lower domestic soybean meal use.
U.S. changes for 2010-2011 include reduced soybean crush and exports and increased ending stocks. Crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1.645 billion reflecting reduced soybean meal exports. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, up 30 million from last month.
Soybean and product prices for 2011-2012 are all higher this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $12.50-14.50/bu., up 50¢ on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $355-385/short ton, up $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54.5-58.5¢/lb., up 0.5¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 451.4 million tons, down 4.1 million tons from last month mostly due to a reduction in the U.S. soybean crop. Reductions for soybeans, rapeseed and cottonseed are only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed and peanut production. Lower soybean production is projected for the U.S., China and Ukraine. China’s production is projected at 14 million tons, down 0.3 million due to reduced harvested area. Brazil’s soybean production is projected at 73.5 million tons, up 1 million due to higher expected yield. Production for Brazil’s 2010-2011 crop is also raised this month to a record 75.5 million tons based on record yields.
U.S. Corn and Soybean Production
Corn production is forecast at 12.9 billion bushels, up 4% from 2010. If realized, this will be the third largest production total on record for the U.S. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 153 bu./acre, up 0.2 bu. from 2010, and the fourth highest yield on record. Acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 92.3 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 84.4 million acres, down less than 1% from June but up 4% from 2010.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 8% from last year. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.4 bu./acre, down 2.1 bu. from last year. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 73.8 million acres, down less than 1% from June and down 4% from 2010. Planted area for the nation is estimated at 75.0 million acres, down fractionally from June.