Corn balance sheets are unchanged and global supplies are lower from last month's report. Average prices narrowed 10¢ on each end to $6-6.40/bu. Global soybean production is down, but average prices are up to 12-12.50/bu.
U.S. feed grain balance sheets for 2011-2012 are unchanged this month. The projected ranges for the season-average corn farm prices is narrowed 10¢ on each end to $6-6.40/bu.
Corn used to produce ethanol in 2011-2012 is projected at 5.0 billion bushels, unchanged again this month. The latest monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that average daily ethanol disappearance fell to a 23-month low in January pushing ethanol stocks to a new record high. Weekly EIA ethanol production data suggest average daily ethanol production during February and March has continued to fall hitting its lowest level since early last fall.
Projected 2011-2012 corn feed and residual use is unchanged at 4.6 billion bushels. March 1 stocks indicate a September-February feed and residual disappearance 238 million bushels lower than during the first six months of the 2010-2011 marketing year. Prospects for feed and residual disappearance during the remainder of 2011-2012 will be limited by an improving outlook for summer wheat feeding and the potential for 2012 new-crop corn use during August. The quick start to corn planting this spring and more intended acres across the South raise the potential for a substantial increase in new-crop corn use before the September 1 start of the new marketing year.
Global corn supplies, production, imports, consumption
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-2012 are projected 4.3 million tons lower mostly on a 4.0-million-ton reduction in corn beginning stocks in China with higher 2010-2011 corn feed and residual use.
Global 2011-2012 corn production is nearly unchanged with a number of notable, but offsetting changes made, many of which reflect the latest available updates to officially reported statistics. Corn production is raised 1.7 million tons for Egypt, 0.6 million tons for Indonesia, 0.4 million tons for Cambodia and 0.2 million tons each for Colombia and Thailand. Production for Mexico is lowered 1.5 million tons based on lower harvested area as government harvest reports suggest last summer’s crop suffered greater losses than previously thought from late planting, sporadic dryness, and an early frost in eastern areas of the south-central Corn Belt. Production for Argentina is reduced 0.5 million tons with lower yields reported for the early planted crop. South Africa production is lowered 0.5 million tons as dryness and late-season heat that persisted through mid-March reduced yield prospects in western areas of the Corn Belt. The resumption in rainfall in late March came too late for much of the crop. Venezuela production is lowered 0.4 million tons with lower reported area and yields and Laos production is lowered 0.3 million tons on lower reported area.
Global coarse grain imports and exports for 2011-2012 are raised slightly with several countries adjusted based largely on the pace of trade to date. A 0.5-million-ton increase for Brazil corn exports is partly offset by a 0.1-million-ton decrease in corn exports for Mexico. Corn imports are lowered for Egypt, Thailand and Colombia, but raised for Mexico, Indonesia and Venezuela.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2011-2012 is lowered 3.4 million tons mostly on a 3.0-million-ton reduction in corn feed and residual use in China. An increase in China wheat feeding is mostly offsetting. Mexico corn feeding is reduced 0.4 million tons, also with higher expected wheat feeding. Corn feeding is raised 0.5 million tons for Indonesia and 0.4 million tons for Egypt. A 0.5-million-ton reduction in Brazil corn feeding is offset by the same size increase in food, seed and industrial use for the country. Sorghum consumption is raised for China, but lowered for Mexico and Japan.
U.S. soybean exports for 2011-2012 are increased 15 million bushels this month to 1.29 billion. The increase partly offsets reduced export prospects for South America resulting from drought-reduced soybean crops. The U.S. soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1.63 billion due to stronger-than-expected domestic soybean meal disappearance. Soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased production, reduced food use and increased use for methyl ester production reflecting the most recent data published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Seed use is lowered to reflect plantings for 2012 reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 30 Grain Stocks report. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 250 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
Soybean and soybean product prices are all projected higher this month. The U.S. season average soybean price range is projected at $12-12.50/bu. compared with $11.40-12.60 last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $335-355/short ton compared with the previous projection of $310-340. The soybean oil price is projected at 52.5-54.5¢/lb. compared with the previous projection of 50.5-54.5¢.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 440.6 million tons, down 5.2 million from last month. Foreign production accounts for all of the change. Brazil soybean production is forecast at 66 million tons, down 2.5 million from last month as warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall since late February in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul further reduced yield and production prospects. Argentina and Paraguay soybean production estimates also are further reduced this month, reflecting the damaging effects of this year’s drought.
Global oilseed trade for 2011-2012 is projected at 106.4 million tons, down 2 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower soybean exports are forecast for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Soybean imports are reduced for several countries including Vietnam, Iran and Mexico. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 55.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from last month and down 13.6 million tons from last year.