Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and down 13% from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 122 bu./acre, down 0.8 bu. from the September forecast and 25.2 bu. below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than 1% from the September forecast and up 4% from 2011. Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.86 billion bushels, up 9% from September but down 8% from last year. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 37.8 bu./acre, up 2.5 bu. from last month but down 4.1 bu. from last year. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are higher or unchanged across all states. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up 1% from September and up 3% from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.
Corn Comments
Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data. Total planted area, at 96.9 million acres, is up less than 1% from the previous estimate. Area harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than 1% from the September forecast.
As of Sept. 30, only 25% of the corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition in the 18 major producing states, compared with 22% rated in these two categories on Sept. 2 and 52% from the same time last year. Fifty percent of the acreage was rated in very poor to poor condition compared to only 20% rated in these two categories last year at this time.
The Oct. 1 corn objective yield data indicate the lowest number of ears per acre since 2005 for the combined 10 objective yield states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin).
Rapid phenological development of this year's corn crop continued through September. As of Sept. 30, 94% of the corn acreage was rated mature or beyond, 20 percentage points ahead of the same time last year and 22 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Aided by mild, mostly dry weather in the Midwest, corn producers were harvesting the nation's crop at one of the quickest paces on record. Fifty-four percent of the intended grain acreage was harvested by Sept. 30, 36 percentage points ahead of last year and 34 percentage points ahead of the five-year average pace.
Soybean Comments
Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data. Planted area, at 77.2 million acres, is up 1% from the previous estimate. Area for harvest is forecast at 75.7 million acres, up 1% from September and up 3% from 2011. If realized, harvested area will be the third largest on record.
The October objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing states (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio and South Dakota) indicate a lower pod count compared with last year, as hot, dry weather during bloom hampered development of the crop in many areas. Compared with final counts for 2011, pod counts are down in all states. The largest declines from 2011's final pod counts are expected in Illinois, Missouri and Nebraska, all down more than 570 pods/18 sq. ft.
As of Sept. 30, 85% of the soybean crop was dropping leaves or beyond, 14 percentage points ahead of last year's pace and 8 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Progress was equal to or ahead of normal in all major-producing states except Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee. The percent of acreage dropping leaves was more than 10 points ahead of normal in Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Harvest progress, at 41% complete, was 26 percentage points ahead of last year's pace and 22 percentage points ahead of normal. Harvest progress was more than 50 percentage points ahead of normal in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota.
As of Sept. 30, 35% of the United States soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 19 percentage points below the same week in 2011. Crop conditions improved during September in 14 of the 18 major soybean states. If realized, the forecasted yield in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina and Virginia will be a record high.
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