USDA issued significant corrections to the October Crop Report this morning for both corn and soybeans – and most of the changes are bullish for prices. Here’s a brief rundown of the adjustments:
The surprising 2.2-million-acre increase in soybean acreage that showed up in last month’s supply/demand update was wrong. USDA did find additional acres, but it was “only” a 1.1-million-acre increase. The new harvested acreage figure for soybeans is 74.4 million, compared to the 75.5 million used in the October report. This dropped the production estimate by 45 million bushels, but the new carryover projection was cut only 15 million (to 205 million bushels) because the export projection was reduced by 20 million.
More shocking is a million-acre cut in corn acreage because that was totally unexpected. USDA now says 78.2 million acres of corn will be harvested versus the 79.2-million-acre estimate released about three weeks ago and 86.5 million last year. They also trimmed the national average yield slightly from 154 to 153.9 bu. As a result, the corn crop is now pegged at 12.033 billion bushels, down 167 million from last month’s estimate. After a 50-million-bushel cut in corn exports, the new carryover estimate stands at 1.088 billion vs. 1.154 billion in the October report.
Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.