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Corn
The USDA Crop Report issued on August 12 came in with a larger-than-expected crop production estimate for the 2008 corn crop in the U.S., which would make it the second largest U.S. corn crop in history, trailing only the 2007 total corn production of 13.1 billion bushels in the U.S. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, USDA is estimating the 2008 corn crop at almost 12.3 billion bushels, which is an increase of about 570,000 bushels from the July 1 estimated production of just over 11.7 billion bushels. The August estimate is slightly higher than the just-under 12 billion bushels that most private analysts estimated.

USDA is now projecting a national average corn yield of 155 bu./acre, which is up from a national average yield projection of 148.4 bu./acre on July 1, and is slightly higher than the 2007 national average yield of 151.7 bu. The projected yield increase compared to July 1 is due to greatly improved weather conditions in the primary corn-producing regions of the U.S., including Minnesota and Iowa. USDA is now projecting Iowa’s average corn yield at 171 bu./acre for 2008, which is the same as the 2007 average corn yield in Iowa. This seems rather interesting, given all the lost crop acres and poor growing conditions that existed in Iowa in early June, due to heavy rains and flooding. Minnesota’s average corn yield for 2008 is pegged at 165 bu./acre by USDA, which compares to an average corn yield of 146 bu. in 2007.

Soybeans
The USDA soybean report on August 12 was slightly below grain trade estimates, and slightly lower than the USDA estimate on July 1. USDA now projects the 2008 U.S. soybean crop at 2.973 billion bushels, which compares to 3 billion bushels estimated by USDA on July 1. However, the 2008 estimate is still well above the 2007 total U.S. production of just under 2.6 billion bushels. The U.S. average soybean yield for 2008 is estimated at 40.5 bu./acre, which compares to 41.2 bu. in 2007. The lower yield is offset by the fact that producers are expected to harvest over 10.5 million more acres of soybeans in 2008, as compared to 2007.