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Brazil Soy Crop Pegged At 58.2 MMT

Brazil’s 2005-06 soybean crop is now estimated at 58.2 million metric tons (MMT) by Conab, the supply arm of Brazil’s agriculture ministry.

In its third of six crop projections for this growing season, Conab narrowed its forecast from a previous projection of 57.4-58.5 million tons.

The crop is seen rising 13 percent from Conab’s final 2004-05 crop estimate of 51.1 MMT despite at 5 percent drop in planted acreage due to increased production costs, low soybean prices and problems with drought last year and the previous year.

A recovery in yields in the growing areas of southern Brazil from last year’s drought-reduced levels will help boost production. The average yield for the large center-west growing region is also forecast to rise slightly.

The USDA currently projects Brazil’s crop at 58.5 million tons, up from 53 million last year.

The Conab projection is a bit higher than most private estimates out of Brazil. Private consultant Celeres on Monday pegged the crop at 57.8 million tons versus a previous estimate of 58.1 million tons.

The firm AgroConsult also on Monday estimated the crop at only 55.34 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 55.87 million.

Brazil’s Vegetable Oils Industry Association on Friday estimated the crop at 57.1 million tons, down from a January estimate of 57.4 million tons.

Editors note: Richard Brock, The Corn and Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

To see more market perspectives, visit Brock's Web site at www.brockreport.com.