More in Marketing and Promotion

  • Dec 15, 2014
    blog

    Why I believe corn, soybean prices will move higher 1

    When you get major "headline-risk" like we are seeing in the energy markets, coupled with lower than normal trade volume, all bets are off in regard to traditional fundamental rhyme and reason....More
  • Dec 5, 2014
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    Will soybean demand push stocks lower?

    Soybeans enjoyed another week of better-than-expected export sales. In its wake the trade continues to believe the USDA will soon be forced to raise their current export estimates by 25 to 50 million. Hopefully we see this take place next Wednesday in the upcoming December USDA report....More
  • Nov 14, 2014
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    Is South American weather worse than the soybean trade recognizes?

    As a producer I still want to remain patient. Don't be surprised or panicked though if we start to see the trade backpedal a bit as Chinese demand and U.S. rail lose a little sizzle....More
  • Nov 11, 2014
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    Does the corn market's bullish USDA news have traders thinking twice?

    Seasoned traders will tell you: When a corn market fails to rally (as it did on Nov. 10) on a bullish headline, it's a market that may be headed for more downhill price action. I tend to concur....More
  • Oct 31, 2014
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    Execute in the soybean market; reduce additional risk on the rally

    As a producer I continue to believe "best-of-practice" is to reduce additional risk on the rally. I now have 100% of our 2014 production priced and will be exclusively looking for ways to improve my basis levels or re-own existing sales in the weeks ahead....More
  • Oct 28, 2014
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    Will corn prices increase as freezing temps approach? 1

    Corn pulled higher by soymeal spot demand/logistics as freezing temps are forecast to show up this weekend....More
  • Oct 17, 2014
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    Will weather in South American support soybean prices?

    Growth in supply has clearly outpaced growth in demand. It's going to take a little bit of time, but eventually I suspect the wrinkles get ironed out and prices start to stabilize (I just don't think we are there yet). Producers should remain patient, keeping all soybean hedges in place, and use any extended "geopolitical" or "weather" related rallies to reduce additional long-term risk....More
  • Sep 30, 2014
    blog

    Market surprise from grain stocks report?

    USDA released their September quarterly stocks report and the markets are lower across the board. No real surprises in my opinion! Some of you however might be surprised when you see the soybean market lower on sub-100 million ending stocks numbers....More
  • Sep 12, 2014
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    Will soybean prices stabilize?

    As a producer I see nothing wrong starting to unwind a very small portion of your remaining soybean short hedges. The break has paid huge dividends and there is absolutely no need to get overly greedy....More
  • Aug 5, 2014
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    Can soybeans transition to a bullish story?

    The soybean "technicians" are looking back at prices noticing that they are at the same levels as they were on July11th.  Many are also noting that a "key bullish reversal" could be building.  As I have mentioned over the past several reports, we are definitely in the midst of a major weather market, but we are also transitioning from a bullish old crop story to a potentially extremely bearish new crop story....More
  • Aug 1, 2014
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    Weather helping soybean yield 2

    Several well respected sources think that we could see the current USDA bean yield estimate of 45.2bpa, be pushed higher by up 3-4%, meaning a 46.5bpa to 47bpa, may not be out of the question. A jump in yields that substantial could push ending stocks north of 500 million bushels and prices below $10.00....More
  • Jul 22, 2014
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    Can soybean demand keep grain prices afloat? 1

    I suspect with Chinese demand staying strong, some definite uncertainties remaining in Argentina and the entire month of August still ahead of our U.S. crop, the trade may take a bit slower approach to reducing price-risk. Producers should continue to keep hedges in place. Any rally back towards the $11.00 to $11.30 range must be viewed as an opportunity to reduce longer-term risk....More
  • Jul 11, 2014
    blog

    Is it time to lock in propane prices? 4

    I continue to field calls from farmers asking about locking in propane prices. I think this is​ a​ very smart play and something I have definitely been recommending for the past couple of weeks, at least on ​a ​significant portion of your fall and winter needs. Personally, I think securing 70% of your estimated needs makes a lot of sense at these levels. ​ I am NOT saying we don't have the propane to meet our needs here in the US, because we do....More
  • Jul 9, 2014
    blog

    Make smart risk management moves when marketing soybeans 5

    Soybeans continue to try and break downhill slalom records (breaking over a $1.30 in the past 8 trading sessions) on thoughts of a mammoth new-crop coming down the pipe and talk that many U.S. crushers are claiming to have enough coverage to make it through August, possibly holding out until U.S. southern new-crop bushels hit the supply pipeline....More
  • Jun 24, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans continue to support the grain market 3

    It seems the soybean market has to deliver a spectacular performance each and every day or in general, the entire ag sector seems a bit disappointed. This bullish demeanor, or tilt to the market, in my opinion, has caused some traders to take several ill-advised shots on goal the past few months....More
  • Jun 13, 2014
    blog

    Market your old-crop corn bushels 3

    Dumping the old-crop bushels and holding off on any new-crop sales obviously makes the most sense. It creates cash-flow, frees up available storage and buys lots of additional time. Also with new-crop prices well below the spring revenue insurance guarantee of $4.62 per bushel, I see no real need to start making new-crop sales at this stage....More
  • Jun 6, 2014
    blog

    Are soybean cash markets telling a different story? 1

    Soybean bears are wondering if the cash markets might be telling a slightly different story than the balance sheet bulls are projecting. The bears are also thinking the USDA will revise last years soybean crop higher by some 15 to 25 million bushels. The question the bulls are asking is how much higher will domestic crush and export demand be raised?...More
  • May 28, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans: It's only when the tide goes out you discover who was swimming naked

    From what I am hearing most end-users are about 65-75% covered through July but have next to nothing done for August. Obviously everybody is hoping imports will help resolve the situation, but no one is clearly certain about how this game will end.    Soybean traders are digesting the fact the US planting pace is now AHEAD of our traditional average.  The USDA released data yesterday showing that 59% of the crop is now planted vs. 41% last year and 56% on average. In addition 25% of the crop is now "emerged" vs....More
  • May 23, 2014
    blog

    Argentina’s Peso In Trouble Again? Can the large Soybean surplus turn to a more concerning situation?

    Argentina’s peso has remained mostly stable since the end of March, but in the past few days, the country’s central bank (BRCA) has allowed it to start weakening again. This follows a steady reduction in interest rates that’s been ongoing for the last month, which now stands 26.9%, far below the inflation rate, which most analysts believe is close to 40%....More
  • May 21, 2014
    blog

    Corn Bulls point to less wheat feeding! Bears are circling the wagons. 1

    The bears are arguing this number is too high considering it hasn't been adjusted in months and therefore hasn't fairly taken into account the negative effects and impact of the...More
  • May 9, 2014
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    Corn bulls demand story: Fundamentals versus logic 1

    From my perspective it's NOT traditional fundamental market logic that is dictating corn price direction but rather the rotation of money from various other forms of investments that have fallen out of favor....More
  • Apr 29, 2014
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    How long will corn prices get a lift from slow planting?

    Corn planting pace lifts prices higher, will trend continue...More
  • Apr 1, 2014
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    Will funds continue to push soybeans higher?

    I might be the odd man out on this, but I actually believe one saving grace might be the fact U.S. soybean acres move lower NOT higher. I just think with the rally in corn prices, many of the guys that were going to make the switch to more beans are going to go ahead and roll the corn again....More
  • Mar 18, 2014
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    3 Keys to bullish soybean prices 1

    Crush numbers, Chinese demand and U.S. weather will push soybean prices above $14....More
  • Mar 11, 2014
    blog

    Will South America soybean issues push soybean prices higher? 3

    The Soy Bulls Have Been Running Hard...More

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