More in Marketing

  • Jun 6, 2014
    blog

    Are soybean cash markets telling a different story? 1

    Soybean bears are wondering if the cash markets might be telling a slightly different story than the balance sheet bulls are projecting. The bears are also thinking the USDA will revise last years soybean crop higher by some 15 to 25 million bushels. The question the bulls are asking is how much higher will domestic crush and export demand be raised?...More
  • Jun 4, 2014
    blog

    Patience at this stage of the game is "best of practice" for most US producers. 1

    After trading to almost $5.15 per bushel (just 17 trading sessions back, on May 6th to be exact) the new-crop DEC14 contract has dropped some $0.60 cents per bushel. I'm not calling this a bottom or looking for a complete turnaround, but I do think...More
  • May 28, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans: It's only when the tide goes out you discover who was swimming naked 1

    From what I am hearing most end-users are about 65-75% covered through July but have next to nothing done for August. Obviously everybody is hoping imports will help resolve the situation, but no one is clearly certain about how this game will end.    Soybean traders are digesting the fact the US planting pace is now AHEAD of our traditional average.  The USDA released data yesterday showing that 59% of the crop is now planted vs. 41% last year and 56% on average. In addition 25% of the crop is now "emerged" vs....More
  • May 27, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans: The game has changed 1

    The bear's continue to argue from a longer-term perspective, wanting to discount the current tight conditions in the old-crop balance sheet as something that will eventually be solved by imports, and focus more intently on record US acreage going in the ground, near ideal growing conditions and a very large South American crop that is all but out of the ground....More
  • May 23, 2014
    blog

    Argentina’s Peso In Trouble Again? Can the large Soybean surplus turn to a more concerning situation?

    Argentina’s peso has remained mostly stable since the end of March, but in the past few days, the country’s central bank (BRCA) has allowed it to start weakening again. This follows a steady reduction in interest rates that’s been ongoing for the last month, which now stands 26.9%, far below the inflation rate, which most analysts believe is close to 40%....More
  • May 22, 2014
    blog

    3 elements of today's soybean market whiplash 1

    Bears continue to feel the pain and side-effects of Injuries sustained by the sudden and unexpected jerking of the markets higher. I continue to monitor both the NOV14 and NOV15 soybean contracts in hopes of making another round of sales and further reducing downside risk and exposure....More
  • May 21, 2014
    blog

    Corn Bulls point to less wheat feeding! Bears are circling the wagons. 1

    The bears are arguing this number is too high considering it hasn't been adjusted in months and therefore hasn't fairly taken into account the negative effects and impact of the...More
  • May 13, 2014
    blog

    USDA reports show increase in grain stocks 2

    The USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) Reports released on May 9 were regarded as neutral to bearish for the corn and soybean market in the coming months. Corn stocks are expected to increase by more than 50% by the end of the next crop marketing year, while the ending stocks for soybeans are expected to more than double by the end of the 2014-15 marketing year, which runs from September 1, 2014 to August 31, 2015....More
  • May 9, 2014
    blog

    Corn bulls demand story: Fundamentals versus logic 2

    From my perspective it's NOT traditional fundamental market logic that is dictating corn price direction but rather the rotation of money from various other forms of investments that have fallen out of favor....More
  • Apr 29, 2014
    blog

    How long will corn prices get a lift from slow planting? 1

    Corn planting pace lifts prices higher, will trend continue...More
  • Apr 25, 2014
    blog

    Persistent soybean bulls push prices higher 1

    The soybean bulls are trying to revive the trade on rumors of yet another Argentine strike; data showing better-than-expected U.S. soymeal sales; and extremely tight supplies. As a producer, I continue to hold out hope for new-crop prices to make a run back above $12.50, but I think we are still several weeks away....More
  • Apr 11, 2014
    blog

    Do corn bulls have the upper hand? 1

    Corn bulls look to weather, demand and acreage for higher prices....More
  • Apr 8, 2014
    blog

    Is a perfect storm brewing for old-crop soybeans?

    Will Tight stocks, Exports, Weather Push Beans to New Highs...More
  • Apr 1, 2014
    blog

    Will funds continue to push soybeans higher? 1

    I might be the odd man out on this, but I actually believe one saving grace might be the fact U.S. soybean acres move lower NOT higher. I just think with the rally in corn prices, many of the guys that were going to make the switch to more beans are going to go ahead and roll the corn again....More
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