Slow grower sales
Brees says that although most of the current information seems to be good news for wheat, corn and soybean prices, it’s not necessarily an easy situation for making selling decisions. “The initial reaction is probably to delay any additional sales of both old-crop and new-crop production,” says Brees. “This is not an unusual reaction, especially following last year’s price pattern that rewarded those who delayed sales until harvest or later.
“A recent survey by a private market advisory service confirms that a large majority of producers continue to worry more about selling too much too early rather than waiting too long to make sales. No one wants to make sales if prices are going higher, but the markets are volatile and full of uncertainty.
“There is risk of waiting too long. Remember, you also cannot delay sales forever. You have got to sell it sometime. A number of factors could eventually turn prices lower. Higher prices can be expected to slow use, which is usually followed by lower prices. Outside factors such as energy prices, dollar value, the economy and fund trading add to market volatility and could turn negative, sending prices lower. Favorable weather, improved foreign production and politics are among many other factors that could contribute to a market turnaround.”
So although dry weather persists over much of the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas growing region, wheat can respond remarkably to late winter snow and rain and can explode when March rolls around. Will prices remain high? Many factors will likely keep the volatility intact through harvest and beyond.
“With prices currently in an uptrend and pointed higher, you are likely reluctant to sell right now,” says Brees. “However, you should have a plan now. Current prices offer profit opportunities that are well above typical breakeven prices. You should not allow profitable prices to slip away. It is one thing to pass up a price on the way up, but don’t miss it on the way down.”