Grain Market Viewpoint

Persistent soybean bulls push prices higher

Soybeans bulls continue to try and fight the good fight but I'm afraid they might be temporarily running low on ammunition as the bearish troops continue to come over the hill. The bulls are trying to revive the trade on rumors of yet another Argentine strike; data showing better than expected US soymeal sales; and extremely tight supplies.  The China crush margins that have been said to be faltering have found some traction and appear to be pulling themselves higher. The liquidity issues that have made headlines over the past few weeks, may have peaked, with credit lines improving.  On the flip side, the bears realize as each day passes and we take one step closer to more SAM imports and US new-crop supplies, the current balance sheet becomes more solvable; The bears also realize, even though the Chinese situation may temporarily be improving as "cancelations" have somewhat eased a bit of "drowning in beans" headline, there is no contesting that the worlds #1 buyer has in fact become a seller on the heels of faltering demand. There is also some talk the lack of demand in China has pushed more Asian soymeal into the global marketplace and may in fact now be undercutting South American suppliers.   Also from my perspective the South American crop looks to be getting bigger and NOT smaller (Brazil's crop could be 5% or more  larger than last year and the Argentine crop 10% or more larger than last year). As a producer I continue to hold out hope for new-crop prices to make a run back above $12.50, but I am thinking we are still several weeks away...in fact it might be the bears turn to come up to bat for a while???  

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on May 5, 2014

At this point we should be dealing with all those things that we could also need to know about. - Ellerslie Mission Society

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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