Grain Market Viewpoint

Rain could cause harvest delays

Soybean harvest looks as if it could be delayed by heavy rains in the eastern part of the Corn Belt and possible snow and freezing temps in the western areas. This is keeping the processors hands somewhat tied and driving up the bids for cash meal.

With South American suppliers basically throwing their hands in the air, proclaiming they are all out of meal, global buyers are now desperately trying to find supplies. The U.S. seems to be the best source and is now left to fill the void. Several traders are thinking this could be a short-term "game-changer" and be just enough to propel soybean prices back to levels around $13 or perhaps even higher.

Another way to look at it is that Brazilian soybean exports so far this year are thought to total around 40.6 million metric tons, just a smidge under the current USDA projections of 41 mmt. The problem is there are four months left in their marketing year, which means either the USDA is underestimating the Brazilian exports or the U.S. is going to be left to fill the void left by the earlier and quicker Brazilian sales. 

Keep in mind, short-term there is also a historical tendency for soybeans to rally from now through mid-October. Producers who are hoping to once again see prices at or above $13 might just get another chance in the days ahead. It's interesting to see CitiResearch saying that soybean prices could stay compressed in a low-price environment thru 2015 on supply strength out of the Americas to help benefit those consumers that were plagued with elevated and volatile soybean pricing during 2011-1H’2013. Keep in mind several analyst are now projecting U.S. producers will plant over 80 million acres of soybeans next year (about +3% gain).

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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