The USDA Crop Report released on Sept. 12 made a slight decrease in the expected U.S. corn and soybean production for 2012, as compared to the August USDA estimates, reflecting the severity of the 2012 drought in many areas of the U.S. USDA is now estimating the total 2012 corn production at 10.7 billion bushels, which slightly below the 10.8 billion bushel estimate in August. Total U.S. corn production was 12.3 billion bushels in 2011, 12.5 billion bushels in 2010, and 13.1 billion bushels in 2009. If the 2012 projections hold up, this would be the lowest total U.S. corn production since 2006.
USDA is now estimating the 2012 average U.S. corn yield at 122.8 bu./acre, which is down slightly from the August estimate of 123.4 bu., and would be the lowest average U.S. corn yield since 1995. The 2012 projected national average corn yield would be well below the 2011 U.S. corn yield of 147.2 bu./acre, or the 2010 U.S. corn yield of 152.8 bu. The record U.S. average corn yield was 164.7 bu. in 2009. The decreased U.S. corn yield expectations by USDA are due to extended drought conditions that have persisted in large areas of the Corn Belt and the Great Plains states during much of the 2012 growing season.
The USDA report is estimating total soybean production in 2012 at 2.63 billion bushels, which is also a slight decrease compared to the 2.69-billion-bushel estimate in August. Total U.S. soybean production was 3.06 billion bushels in 2011, 3.33 billion bushels in 2010, and 3.36 billion bushels in 2009. The average U.S. soybean yield for 2012 is now estimated at 35.3 bu./acre, down from the August USDA estimate of 36.1 bu. The 2012 soybean yield estimate is well below the 2011 U.S. soybean yield of 41.5 bu., and the 2010 national soybean yield of 43.5 bu. The record U.S. soybean yield was 44.0 bu./acre in 2009.
Based on the Sept. 12 report, USDA is estimating the 2012 corn yield in Minnesota at 156 bu./acre, which is 1 bu. above the August estimate, and is the same as the 2011 statewide corn yield, but is well below the 2010 record corn yield of 177 bu./acre. USDA is estimating the 2012 average corn yield in Iowa to be 140 bu., which is well below the 2011 corn yield of 172 bu./acre, or the record average state corn yield of 182 bu. in 2008. Illinois is projected to have a 2012 average corn yield of 110 bu./acre, compared to 157 bu. in 2011. Other 2012 estimated corn yields are 100 bu./acre for Indiana, compared to 146 bu. in 2011; 145 bu. in Nebraska, compared to 160 bu. in 2011; and 96 bu./acre in South Dakota, compared to 132 bu. in 2011.
The Sept. 12 report estimated the 2012 Minnesota soybean yield 38 bu./acre, slightly below the 2011 statewide soybean yield of 38.5 bu., and much lower than the 2010 record state average soybean yield of 45 bu./acre. The projected 2011 Iowa soybean yield is estimated at 39 bu./acre, which compares to an average yield of 50.5 bu. in 2011. The estimated 2012 average soybean yield in Illinois is 37 bu./acre, compared to 47 bu. in 2011. Other 2012 state average soybean yields are Indiana at 37 bu./acre, compared to 45 bu. in 2011; Nebraska at 40 bu./acre, compared to 53.5 bu. in 2011; and South Dakota at 28 bu./acre, compared to 37 bu. in 2011.