Grain Market Viewpoint

Soybeans: The game has changed

Make sure you’re NOT still playing under the old set of rules.

The bears continue to argue from a longer-term perspective, wanting to discount the current tight conditions in the old-crop balance sheet as something that will eventually be solved by imports, and focus more intently on record U.S. acreage going in the ground, near ideal growing conditions and a very large South American crop that is all but out of the ground.

There is no doubt the bears are correct in their thinking and logic, but as in life..."timing is everything," and in today's marketplace it's not just about understanding and or knowing longer-term price direction, it's about understanding and knowing what "event" or "headline" the market is currently trading or will be trading in the next few hours.

As you have heard me say many times, "our trading-cycles are drastically getting shorter in their durations of time."  You have to realize computerized high-frequency trading, which now makes up the majority of ALL trades, has dramatically changed the waters in which we swim. 

Understand that back in the 1960's the average holding period of a stock for a mutual fund manager (who were the biggest movers of the market at that time) was around eight years.  Today the length of time more than 50% of ALL stock investments are held is thought to be under 25 seconds.  Bottom-line...the game has changed! Make sure you’re NOT still playing under the old set of rules.

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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