Grain Market Viewpoint

What I Like About the Soybean Market Right Now

Soybean bulls continue to believe USDA export estimates of 1.350 billion is too low...suffice to say, I have to agree. There is also more talk about global meal shortages driving near-term prices and bull-spreads higher. I continue to like meal over oil, old-crop bulls spreads, and old-crop vs. new-crop spreads. I see no real solution to the protein problem!

Technical traders will be keeping a close eye on the $14.40 level in MAY13 soybeans, as it has been an area of tough resistance as of late. I should also point out producer selling has been rumored to be much heavier as of late on the pop in both flat-price and basis. Most sources in the domestic market have rolled basis bids forward from May to July. It won't be long and they will be rolling forward to the Nov contract. It will will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Producers who can get close to $15 cash may want to consider moving a few bushels then re-owning the board in some capacity. An "old-crop vs. new-crop" bull-spread or simple call type strategy can be entertained.

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Kevin Van Trump

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20...
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