This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012-2013 include lower beginning and ending stocks and reduced use. Lower beginning stocks reflect increased export and crush projections for 2011-2012. Soybean exports for 2011-2012 are raised 20 million bushels to 1.335 billion bushels reflecting increased global import demand, led mainly by higher projected imports for China. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels mostly due to stronger domestic soybean meal use.

Soybean ending stocks for 2011-2012 are projected at 175 million bushels, down 35 million. With reduced supplies for 2012-2013, soybean exports are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million. Soybean crush is also projected lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use. Ending stocks for 2012-2013 are projected at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.

Soybean, meal and oil price projections for 2012-2013 are unchanged this month. The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $12-14/bu. Soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $335-365/ton and 52.5-56.5¢/lb., respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2012-2013 is projected at 470.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. China’s soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons due to lower area as producers shift planting decisions toward corn. Brazil’s cottonseed production is also reduced due to lower area planted to cotton as world prices have declined in recent weeks. Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for EU-27, increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased sunflower seed production for EU-27, and reduced cottonseed production for Australia and Egypt. Brazil’s 2011-2012 soybean production is increased 0.5 million tons to 65.5 million while Argentina soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 41.5 million.

 

Download the full June 2012 WASDE report.