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U.S. oilseed production for 2013-2014 is projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3 million from last month due to lower soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production. Soybean production is projected at 3.149 billion bushels, down 106 million due to lower yield prospects, especially in the western Corn Belt. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 from last month.
Soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels to 1.655 billion reflecting lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 150 million bushels, down 70 million. Other changes for 2013-2014 include reduced soybean oil production and exports. The 2012-2013 supply and demand estimates include a 5-million-bushel increase in soybean imports to a record 40 million and a 5-million-bushel increase in crush. Ending stocks remain unchanged at 125 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.50-13.50 per bushel, up $1.15 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360-400 per short ton, up $55.00 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are projected at 43-47¢ per pound, down 1¢ at the midpoint as large global vegetable oil supplies pressure prices.
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