According to University of Illinois Agricultural Economist Darrel Good, the U.S. average corn yield was below trend value for three consecutive years from 2010 through 2012 and the U.S. average soybean yield was below trend value in both 2011 and 2012. The shortfall in corn yields resulted in declining year-ending stocks and higher prices in both the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 marketing years.
“The small crop of 2012 required rationing of consumption and resulted in record high prices for the 2012-2013 marketing year,” Good says. “Consumption during that marketing year is currently estimated at 11.215 billion bushels, 1.312 billion bushels (10.5%) less than consumption in the previous year. Year-ending stocks are projected at 719 million bushels, only 6.4% of consumption during the year.
Good says that for soybeans, the shortfall in yields in 2011 resulted in higher prices and smaller year-ending stocks for the 2011-2012 marketing year than those of the previous year. The small crop of 2012 resulted in sharply higher prices, rationing of consumption, and a further draw down in year-ending stocks. Consumption for the year just ended is estimated at 3.094 billion bushels, 61 million (2%) less than during the previous year. Year-ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, only 4% of consumption during the year.
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