Soybean bulls may have been a little disappointed by the NOPA crush data that was released yesterday at 137.08 million bushels. It was in line with many trade estimates, but was below what many of the bulls were hoping to see (above 140). I am starting to hear about more problems in Argentina and Brazil, especially in regards to soymeal, therefore I will continue to hold my long MAY13 vs. short JUL13 meal spreads. From my perspective, there may end up being some significant business switched back to the U.S. if therumorsturn out to be true. Both Argentina and Brazilian soymeal shipments are much less than last year. In fact they have yet to ship the EU even half of what they exported to them last year. Crush margins continue to beextremely poor.With continued logisticalproblems and poor margins in South America,Ibelievethe "risk-to-reward" of being bull-spread old crop meal is currently worth the gamble.
New-crop soybeans remain an entirelydifferentstory. The bears continue to talk abut more beans acres going in the ground here in the US. There is also talk that "IF" corn prices drastically fall (say, sub-$4.50), South American producers will quickly shift heavy amounts of corn acres into soybeans. Lets not forget the trade has also been questioning Chinese soy demand. The H7N9 "bird flu" virus iscertainlynot helping matters either, as many in the tradespeculateit is doing more damage to soy demand than the market has currently taken intoaccount. Moral of the story, producers have tocontinuereducing risk on any new-crop beans rallies.