April Soy Crush Below Expectations

The April soybean crush came in well above a year earlier, but below trade expectations, according to Thursday morning’s monthly Census Bureau Fats and Oils Crush Report.

The Census Bureau also revised its estimate of the March crush downward, along with March 31 processor stocks of soymeal. Soyoil stocks were revised upward.

The Bureau pegged the March U.S. soybean crush at 139.4 million bushels, vs. 112.5 million a year earlier. Trade estimates averaged 141.7 million bushels in a range from 140 million to 142.7 million.

The March crush was revised to 148.5 million bushels, from a previous estimate of 149.7 million.

The Census Bureau pegged April 30 processor soymeal stocks at 307,781 short tons, versus a revised 247,953 tons at the end of March, and 338,615 a year earlier. Stocks were in line with trade expectations, which averaged 316,000 tons.

April 31 processor soyoil stocks were pegged at 1.784 billion pounds, vs. 1.811 billion a month earlier and 1.643 billion a year earlier. Stocks were well below trade expectations, which averaged 1.864 billion pounds.

The Census Bureau report showed April 30 processor stocks of soybeans were very tight at only 70.9 million bushels, down from 88.8 million a month earlier and 114.8 million a year earlier.

The tight processor stocks are a major reason cash soybean bids have been strong this month. However, processors have only been struggling to find soybeans because of farmer reluctance to sell the large stocks they have been holding in storage.

That may be changing as this week’s price rally and fast planting progress appear to be bringing more soybeans out of storage. Central Illinois processor basis bids widened 4-7 cents on Wednesday’s futures rally.

Editors note: Richard Brock, The Corn and Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

To see more market perspectives, visit Brock's Web site at www.brockreport.com.