Current futures prices suggest harvest-time 2013 prices of $5.80/bu. for corn and $12.40/bu. for soybeans. Given these prices, 2013 farm incomes likely would be above average. Worst-case incomes depend on levels of projected prices used to set crop insurance guarantees. Likely projected prices will provide significant downside revenue protection. To quantify income projections, farm incomes for a 1,200-acre Illinois grain farm are simulated and presented.
Net farm income is simulated for the following farm designed to be representative of commercial grain farms in Illinois:
Projected 2013 Net Farm Income
Current forward contract bids for 2013 harvest time delivery are $5.80/bu. for corn and $12.40 for soybeans. Given these commodity prices, net farm income is projected at $291,000 (see Table 1). This income would be high relative to averages. Farms of this size have average income around $207,000 for the years from 2007 through 2011.
Slightly lower price projections of $5.40 for corn and $11.80/bu. for soybeans would result in $229,000. Income projections at this level would still be above average.
Price over the next five to 10 years likely will average considerably lower than the $5.80 corn price and $12.40 soybean price indicated by current futures prices. Estimates of average, or long-run, prices are $4.50/bu. for corn and $10.50/bu. for soybeans. These long-run prices result in $85,000 of net farm income (see Table 1).
Net farm incomes could be considerably lower than projected above. To gain a feel for downside risks, worst case incomes are determined given the following:
Given the above, the worst-case income is $43,000. A number of price-yield combinations can results in this $43,000 income. Holding yields constant at 187 bu./acre for corn and 54 bu. for soybean, the $43,000 worst case income would result with a $4.40 corn price and $9.10 soybean price.
Again, projected price used for crop insurance have a large impact on worst-case incomes. Worst-case incomes for lower projected prices are:
Worst-case income also depends on coverage level selected. For a $6.10 projected corn price and $12.70 projected soybean price, worst-case incomes for different coverage levels are:
Amount of land cash rented and cash rent level also impacts worst-case incomes. Impacts of rental arrangements on projected incomes will be examined in a future post at farmdocDaily.
Current price projections at harvest time in 2013 place prices at $5.80 for corn and $12.40 for soybeans. These prices likely would result in above average 2013 net farm income. These projected 2013 income also would be considerably above income projected using long-run prices. Overall, 2013 currently is projected as a good income year for crop farms. Worst-case incomes will be influenced by projected prices and coverage level choices. Likely projected prices will provide significant downside risk protection given that relatively high crop insurance coverage levels are selected.