USDA’s WASDE report released Dec. 10 show small, if any changes in corn and soybean production. Corn production rose 2.2 million tons, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels and prices are the same as last month. Soybean ending stocks are down 20 million bushels from last month, and prices are the same.
Corn
U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010-2011 are virtually unchanged as a small increase in corn imports is offset by a reduction in barley imports both reflecting feed grain production changes for Canada this month. U.S. corn imports are raised 5 million bushels with record production reported for Canada. U.S. corn ending stocks are raised accordingly. The projected marketing-year average price received by U.S. corn producers is unchanged this month at $4.80-5.60/bu.
Global coarse grain production for 2010-2011 is increased 3.4 million tons with corn production up 2.2 million tons, barley production up 0.6 million tons, and oats production up 0.4 million tons. India corn production is raised 1.0 million tons as the extended monsoon increased late-season soil moisture for the summer corn crop. Canada corn production is raised 0.7 million tons as favorable weather boosted corn yields in Ontario and Quebec. Corn production is raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and 0.4 million tons for EU-27. Small offsetting reductions are made this month for Paraguay corn.
Global 2010-2011 coarse grain trade is lowered slightly mostly reflecting reduced corn imports by Mexico as feeding there is projected lower. Corn exports are lowered 0.8 million tons for Serbia, but raised 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively, for India and Canada. Reduced corn feeding for Mexico and Serbia is mostly offset by increases for India, South Africa and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 0.8 million tons higher with larger stocks in EU-27 and Serbia partly offset by smaller stocks in South Africa and Mexico.
Soybeans
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2010-2011 is projected at 101.7 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.59 billion reflecting record export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) through November. With projected crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2010-2011 are projected at 165 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010-2011 is projected at $10.70-12.20/bu., unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price projection is also unchanged at $310-350/short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 45-49¢/lb., up 2.5¢ on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010-2011 is projected at 442.6 million tons, up 1.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowerseed and cottonseed. Global soybean production is projected at a 257.8 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly due to an increase for Canada.
Global oilseed trade is projected at 112.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the U.S. and Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 70.3 million tons, down 1 million, as lower soybean stocks in Brazil and the U.S. are only partly offset by higher rapeseed stocks in Canada.