U.S. corn production is forecast at 12.4 billion bushels, down 1% from the September forecast and down slightly from the 2010 production estimate. If realized, this will be the fourth-largest production total on record for the U.S. Based on conditions as of Oct. 1, yields are expected to average 148.1 bu./acre, unchanged from the September forecast but down 4.7 bu. from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 2005. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.9 million acres, down 1% from the September forecast. Acreage updates were made in several states based on administrative data.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.06 billion bushels, down 1% from September and down 8% from last year. Based on Oct. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bu./acre, down 0.3 bu. from last month and down 2 bu. from last year. If realized, the average yield will be the second lowest since 2003. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.7 million acres, down slightly from September and down 4% from 2010.
Corn beginning stocks for 2011-2012 are raised 208 million bushels from the previous projection based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate. Corn supplies for 2011-2012 are forecast 144 million bushels higher. Total U.S. corn use for 2011-2012 is projected 50 million bushels lower with reduced exports.
Higher expected Black Sea production and exports increase competition for U.S. corn. U.S. ending stocks are projected 194 million bushels higher at 866 million. The season-average farm price is projected 30¢/bu. lower on both ends of the range to $6.20-7.20. For 2010-2011, corn feed and residual use is lowered 197 million bushels based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate and other changes to 2010-2011 use and supplies. Sweetener and starch use is lowered 15 million bushels based on reported use for the June-August quarter. Corn imports are lowered 3 million bushels for 2010-2011.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 10.4 million tons higher with more than half of the increase reflecting the 5.3-million-ton increase in U.S. corn beginning stocks. Global corn production is raised 5.4 million tons with foreign production increases more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Production is raised 4.0 million tons for China to a record 182.0 million tons supported by 2011 weather data, information from crop tours and early forecasts by officials in China. Ukraine corn production is raised 3.0 million tons as summer precipitation and temperature patterns support a sharp year-to-year increase in yield prospects and early harvest results indicate record yields.
Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Russia but lowered 0.3 million tons for Serbia. Estimates of China’s 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 corn production are raised 6.0 million tons and 4.2 million tons, respectively, in line with data from the China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Based on analysis of summer weather data from China’s northeast corn-growing region during the past decade, NBS provincial yield estimates for 2000 through 2008, and the recently released provincial yield estimates for 2010, NBS yields for 2009 are consistent with the historical relationship between yields and reported summer rainfall and temperatures. Summer weather data and the same statistical relationship support this month’s upward revisions to 2010 production. Increases in China corn feed and residual use for 2009-2010, 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 offset this month’s production increases leaving China ending stocks nearly unchanged.
Global coarse grain trade for 2011-2012 is raised slightly driven by increased corn imports by South Korea and higher corn exports from Ukraine and Russia. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.3 million tons for Russia with larger crops expected in both countries. These changes more than offset the reduction projected for U.S. shipments. Global corn ending stocks are projected 5.8 million tons higher for 2011-2012 mostly reflecting the larger U.S. beginning stocks. Despite the increase, 2011-2012 world corn ending stocks would be the smallest since 2006-2007.
U.S. soybean exports for 2011-2012 are reduced 40 million bushels to 1.375 billion reflecting the slow pace of export sales and strong early season export competition from South America. The Sept. 1 stock estimate of 215 million bushels indicated higher-than-expected residual use for 2010-2011. As a result, the 2011-2012 residual use is projected at 32 million bushels, up 9 million from the previous estimate. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 160 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all reduced this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011-2012 is projected at $12.15-14.15/bu., down 50¢ on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $335-365/short ton, down $25 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 53-57¢/lb., down 2¢ on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2011-2012 is projected at 453.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 258.6 million tons, down 0.4 million mainly due to the lower U.S. crop. Soybean production is raised for India and Ukraine. Offsetting is a small reduction for Canada based on the latest survey information from Statistics Canada. Global oilseed stocks for 2011-2012 are increased 0.5 million tons to 73.0 million with soybeans accounting for most of the change.