More in Marketing

  • Jul 1, 2014
    blog

    Are soybeans headed for $10?

    Soybean acres could get even larger from here. What if yield comes in better than 45 bushels per acre? All of a sudden we are looking at ending stocks of 400-500 million bushels and the trade taking about sub-$10 soybeans....More
  • Jun 24, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans continue to support the grain market 1

    It seems the soybean market has to deliver a spectacular performance each and every day or in general, the entire ag sector seems a bit disappointed. This bullish demeanor, or tilt to the market, in my opinion, has caused some traders to take several ill-advised shots on goal the past few months....More
  • Jun 18, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans could have one last rally 1

    From a "spread" perspective, I continue to hear talk form many traders who suspect the old-crop/new-crop spread (now at it's lowest level since mid-Feb) will continue to deteriorate – at least through the June 30th report. From there it's believed we could see a late inning rally and perhaps one last hurrah!...More
  • Jun 16, 2014
    blog

    Why You MUST Pay Attention To Iraq

    Oil prices could skyrocket to $200 per barrel...More
  • Jun 13, 2014
    blog

    Market your old-crop corn bushels 1

    Dumping the old-crop bushels and holding off on any new-crop sales obviously makes the most sense. It creates cash-flow, frees up available storage and buys lots of additional time. Also with new-crop prices well below the spring revenue insurance guarantee of $4.62 per bushel, I see no real need to start making new-crop sales at this stage....More
  • Jun 10, 2014
    blog

    Corn, soybean prices more challenging 1

    It appears the days of $6 corn prices, and maybe even $5 corn, are behind us for the foreseeable future. Projected significant increases in corn carryover inventories, along with fairly good 2014 crop conditions in many areas of the Midwest, will likely continue to put pressure on both cash corn prices, as well as new-crop prices. The outlook for soybean prices is a bit more optimistic, but new-crop soybean prices could also be challenged, if better-than-expected average U.S. soybean yields are achieved in 2014....More
  • Jun 6, 2014
    blog

    Are soybean cash markets telling a different story? 1

    Soybean bears are wondering if the cash markets might be telling a slightly different story than the balance sheet bulls are projecting. The bears are also thinking the USDA will revise last years soybean crop higher by some 15 to 25 million bushels. The question the bulls are asking is how much higher will domestic crush and export demand be raised?...More
  • Jun 4, 2014
    blog

    Patience at this stage of the game is "best of practice" for most US producers. 1

    After trading to almost $5.15 per bushel (just 17 trading sessions back, on May 6th to be exact) the new-crop DEC14 contract has dropped some $0.60 cents per bushel. I'm not calling this a bottom or looking for a complete turnaround, but I do think...More
  • May 28, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans: It's only when the tide goes out you discover who was swimming naked 1

    From what I am hearing most end-users are about 65-75% covered through July but have next to nothing done for August. Obviously everybody is hoping imports will help resolve the situation, but no one is clearly certain about how this game will end.    Soybean traders are digesting the fact the US planting pace is now AHEAD of our traditional average.  The USDA released data yesterday showing that 59% of the crop is now planted vs. 41% last year and 56% on average. In addition 25% of the crop is now "emerged" vs....More
  • May 27, 2014
    blog

    Soybeans: The game has changed

    The bear's continue to argue from a longer-term perspective, wanting to discount the current tight conditions in the old-crop balance sheet as something that will eventually be solved by imports, and focus more intently on record US acreage going in the ground, near ideal growing conditions and a very large South American crop that is all but out of the ground....More
  • May 23, 2014
    blog

    Argentina’s Peso In Trouble Again? Can the large Soybean surplus turn to a more concerning situation?

    Argentina’s peso has remained mostly stable since the end of March, but in the past few days, the country’s central bank (BRCA) has allowed it to start weakening again. This follows a steady reduction in interest rates that’s been ongoing for the last month, which now stands 26.9%, far below the inflation rate, which most analysts believe is close to 40%....More
  • May 22, 2014
    blog

    3 elements of today's soybean market whiplash

    Bears continue to feel the pain and side-effects of Injuries sustained by the sudden and unexpected jerking of the markets higher. I continue to monitor both the NOV14 and NOV15 soybean contracts in hopes of making another round of sales and further reducing downside risk and exposure....More
  • May 21, 2014
    blog

    Corn Bulls point to less wheat feeding! Bears are circling the wagons. 1

    The bears are arguing this number is too high considering it hasn't been adjusted in months and therefore hasn't fairly taken into account the negative effects and impact of the...More
  • May 13, 2014
    blog

    USDA reports show increase in grain stocks 1

    The USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WADSE) Reports released on May 9 were regarded as neutral to bearish for the corn and soybean market in the coming months. Corn stocks are expected to increase by more than 50% by the end of the next crop marketing year, while the ending stocks for soybeans are expected to more than double by the end of the 2014-15 marketing year, which runs from September 1, 2014 to August 31, 2015....More
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